Tag Archives: LCS

Luck and League: Measuring Ideal Season Length in LoL

Angus Lockhart is a consultant at a market research firm in Toronto, Canada, and holds a Masters of Arts in Political Science. He has been playing League of Legends since season 2.


What is the ideal number of games to play in a season? To many fans and analysts, an ideal season has to be long enough that the best teams reliably come out on top, while the weaker teams fall to the bottom of the standings, but not so long that there is no real room for upsets and unpredictability. Based on that definition, sports analytics provide tools for answering that exact question.

The longer a season, the more likely it is that the best teams float to the top. We’d all agree that a four game season is probably too few, but a hundred game season is probably too many. How do we know what is right?

At 18 games, the LCS and LEC have only two more games than the NFL and significantly fewer games than the NBA (82) the NHL (82) and MLB (150). Is that too fed, or is it appropriate given the nature of League of Legends?

Before seeking an answer, we must acknowledge that when it comes to creating a schedule and a season length, many different factors are important: viewership, burnout, skill expression, and more. The focus of this analysis is “skill expression”, meaning the ability of a team to demonstrate its quality with minimal influence from random or uncontrollable factors. But skill expression is naturally not the only consideration, since teams and Riot have an incentive to maximize profit and to limit playing time to prevent burnout. Statistics, however, can’t say much about these other factors, so a broader discussion of the “best” season length must be left to a different context.

The Data

The math behind this analysis comes from Tom Tango’s “True talent replacement level for sports leagues”, via a Neil Paine article on 538. Their previous analysis provides a framework for understanding how much luck contributes to a team’s score after any number of games.

The following analyses use the LCS and LEC records for teams since the beginning of franchising. Continue reading Luck and League: Measuring Ideal Season Length in LoL

LCS 2020 Post-Free Agency Power Rankings – 5 to 1

Tim Sevenhuysen is the founder of OraclesElixir.com and Head of Esports Data Science for Esports One. He led Shadow.gg from 2017-19 and was Statistical Consultant for Fnatic in 2015.


RECAP: Read part 1 of my 2020 LCS preseason power rankings.

The rankings so far:

10. Golden Guardians
9. Immortals
8. Dignitas
7. 100 Thieves
6. FlyQuest

We continue the 2020 LCS preseason power rankings with spot 5, a selection that I’m sure will generate no controversy whatsoever… Continue reading LCS 2020 Post-Free Agency Power Rankings – 5 to 1

LCS 2020 Post-Free Agency Power Rankings – 10 to 6

Tim Sevenhuysen is the founder of OraclesElixir.com and Head of Esports Data Science for Esports One. He led Shadow.gg from 2017-19 and was Statistical Consultant for Fnatic in 2015.


It’s the most wonderful time of the year: LoL offseason!

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I love following along with offseason news, reacting to Wolf Bombs and armchair-analysting teams’ roster moves. So let’s get things started by ruthlessly judging the hard work of all the LCS management teams with an early power ranking of the 2020 rosters!

In this post, I’ll share my thoughts on the “bottom 5” teams of the LCS, as I see them. Later this week, I’ll post my order and reasoning for the “top 5”.

Bear in mind that, with a month and a half still to go before the 2020 season actually kicks off, we have plenty of time to gather more impressions, watch more video, and refine our opinions. By the time week 1 arrives, I might be ready to move some teams up or down in these power rankings. But for now, here’s where my analysis has landed.

10. Golden Guardians

Roster: Hauntzer, Closer, Goldenglue, FBI, Keith

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I’m going to be honest: I don’t understand why the Golden Guardians traded for Goldenglue and made him their starter when they could be using Damonte or Pobelter or giving a shot to a player with a less-explored ceiling, like Yusui or Ablazeolive.

Continue reading LCS 2020 Post-Free Agency Power Rankings – 10 to 6