The “game state evaluation” challenge asks you to look at a snapshot from a game and assess which team is “in the lead”, by how much, and why. To do this, you need to ask yourself about each team composition’s win conditions, and determine which pieces of information are most relevant.
July 23, 2019 Challenge
This challenge was from 14:35 of the past weekend’s game between Origen and Vitality.
Here’s the multi-tweet response from Cody Gerard:
Origen is definitely ahead here. For starters, they have the superior scaling composition and are rapidly coming up on their item spikes. Ezreal should be well into stacking his Manamune, Ryze already has 3 RoA stacks and both Sylas and Gnar are on 1 their Item spikes (1/)
— Cody Gerard (@Avin_97) July 23, 2019
Executioner Ken agreed that Origen was in the lead:
60/40, OG is ahead as they got past the weakest point of their composition without giving any kills to VIT’s winning condition. For OG to win they simply needs to not die and the Gnar will naturally take over the Morde lane while ryze should do just fine wave clearing.
— ExecutionerKen (@ExecutionerKen) July 23, 2019
Heartlock, a pro analyst, wrote a nice thread as well:
Ok so before I go into my thoughts I think it's important to note a few things (in the middle of the Baltic sea on my phone so hard to write this)START:
— Heartlock (@HeartlockLoL) July 23, 2019
The Actual Outcome
In the end, Vitality pulled out the victory, despite the analyst consensus that they hadn’t been achieving their win conditions coming out of the early game. VIT executed better vision control and were more proactive than Origen throughout the game, which was possible because of their map priority and tempo advantages. Ideally, that priority and tempo would have produced more early kills, but the subtle advantages of vision and map control still paid off, and Origen weren’t able to take advantage of their scaling to overtake that control later in the game.
Origen made some macro mistakes that contributed to the loss, most notably exposing themselves to the Baron plays by placing Nukeduck in bottom lane with his Teleport on cooldown. Credit goes to Vitality for recognizing those openings and forcing the plays around Baron, then executing well enough in team fights to manufacture the win.