Central Storylines of LCS Free Agency

Tim Sevenhuysen is the founder of OraclesElixir.com and Head of Esports Data Science for Esports One. He led Shadow.gg from 2017-19 and was Statistical Consultant for Fnatic in 2015.


Free agency is a time of wonder and miracles, when every fan base dreams of landing the big superstar and each roster combination exists in a quantum state of possible outcomes ranging from total meltdowns to tantalizing best-case scenarios. Armchair analysts ready themselves for the viral hot take, content creators spin up their recording equipment, and Jacob Wolf sharpens his fangs. General Managers dream of the galaxy-brain maneuvers that will both set their team up to contend for a title and flesh out a talent pipeline that will secure their future.

Free agency is a time of hope.

As 2019 free agency opens, I’ve picked out three key players to watch, each of whom could significantly shift the tides for any team in 2020 and trigger chain reactions that affect the entire league.

Ssumday

Possibilities: 100 Thieves, Dignitas, Evil Geniuses, Immortals

To say the least, 2019 was a forgettable year for Ssumday. The 100T squad never really clicked, and Ssumday spent most of the summer split playing for the Academy team, where he put up a massive stat line of 5.2 KDA, +809 GXD10, 9.5 CSPM, and 501 DPM in 26 regular season and playoff games.

Don’t let his descent to the Academy league fool you: Ssumday is still a terrific player who could change the fortunes of an LCS team. Continue reading Central Storylines of LCS Free Agency

Analyst Challenge – Risk Tolerance, October 30

October 30, 2019 Challenge

Yesterday I posted an Analyst Challenge based on a moment from game 3 of G2 Esports vs. Damwon Gaming in the World Championships quarterfinals.

Here’s the challenge tweet.

Responses

Continue reading Analyst Challenge – Risk Tolerance, October 30

Feet on the Mountain, Head in the Clouds: Comprehensive measurement of elemental drake value

Tim Sevenhuysen is the founder of OraclesElixir.com and Head of Esports Data Science for Esports One. He led Shadow.gg from 2017-19 and was Statistical Consultant for Fnatic in 2015.


I’ve investigated the relative value of different elemental drake types in the past, and the topic has continued to fascinate me as LoL has evolved over time, with both direct and indirect changes to the elemental drake buffs. With the development of new, more comprehensive LoL win probability models, which I’ve been building for Esports One, there’s a better toolset than ever for diving deeper into the elemental drake question.

Since Riot recently revealed that the dragon system is getting a big overhaul for 2020, there will never be a better time to share some findings about the current iteration of the system! In future, this will give us a comparison point, so we can conduct similar analysis on the new dragon system and see how much has changed.

The analysis below extends my previous work on the statistical value of elemental drakes. I’ve come away with the following main findings:

  • Mountain drakes are the only drake type to gain in value as more game time passes.
  • Infernal drakes have the most direct value at almost all stages of the game.
  • Cloud drakes start out as the most directly valuable type, but their value falls off more compared to infernals.
  • Ocean drakes have the least overall value, from the very start of the game onwards.

Details and discussion below!
Continue reading Feet on the Mountain, Head in the Clouds: Comprehensive measurement of elemental drake value

The premier source for League of Legends esports data, analytics, and insights