Tag Archives: dragons

Feet on the Mountain, Head in the Clouds: Comprehensive measurement of elemental drake value

Tim Sevenhuysen is the founder of OraclesElixir.com and Head of Esports Data Science for Esports One. He led Shadow.gg from 2017-19 and was Statistical Consultant for Fnatic in 2015.


I’ve investigated the relative value of different elemental drake types in the past, and the topic has continued to fascinate me as LoL has evolved over time, with both direct and indirect changes to the elemental drake buffs. With the development of new, more comprehensive LoL win probability models, which I’ve been building for Esports One, there’s a better toolset than ever for diving deeper into the elemental drake question.

Since Riot recently revealed that the dragon system is getting a big overhaul for 2020, there will never be a better time to share some findings about the current iteration of the system! In future, this will give us a comparison point, so we can conduct similar analysis on the new dragon system and see how much has changed.

The analysis below extends my previous work on the statistical value of elemental drakes. I’ve come away with the following main findings:

  • Mountain drakes are the only drake type to gain in value as more game time passes.
  • Infernal drakes have the most direct value at almost all stages of the game.
  • Cloud drakes start out as the most directly valuable type, but their value falls off more compared to infernals.
  • Ocean drakes have the least overall value, from the very start of the game onwards.

Details and discussion below!
Continue reading Feet on the Mountain, Head in the Clouds: Comprehensive measurement of elemental drake value

Early-Game Rating 2.0

Oracle’s Elixir’s Early-Game Rating is getting a makeover! Beginning with Worlds 2019, teams’ ratings will be calculated using the new system.

Jump to charts showing the relative value of gold and dragons.

Early games always seem to be more explosive at international events, and the 2019 meta has been heavily early-game focused, so I expect EGR to be a very informative metric throughout the tournament.

A calculator for EGR 2.0 is now live.

What is not changing about EGR and MLR?

Fundamentally, the definition of Early-Game Rating isn’t changing: Continue reading Early-Game Rating 2.0

Turret Plating and Early-Game Variance: How well did Riot manage the metagame for the 2019 spring split?

Turret plating was introduced to League of Legends for the 2019 season as a way to improve and extend laning phase. That change, along with some other factors, had the potential for huge impact on the pace and metagame of pro LoL. After a full split of domestic and international play, it’s time to evaluate the results to see whether Riot’s changes produced the intended effects, and just as importantly, whether or not they created any collateral damage to the game’s balance.

Spoiler: things worked out pretty well!

Where did the shift come from?

In a development update going into the preseason, Riot stated:

“[Turret plating provides] a more protected and slightly longer laning phase, but still rewards those early push or strong lanes types with the opportunity to destroy a lot of barricade segments and reap the gold rewards.”

Essentially, the goal was to make the first 15 minutes of the game less volatile, but still give it a high influence over the outcome of the game. There was also a sub-goal of bringing down game lengths, partly seen in Riot saying that they wanted to see “decided games resolve faster.”

The goal was not to make the laning phase or early game a more influential part of the overall game flow, and that is the most important aspect of what we’ll evaluate below. Continue reading Turret Plating and Early-Game Variance: How well did Riot manage the metagame for the 2019 spring split?