Analyst Challenge – Risk Tolerance, October 30

October 30, 2019 Challenge

Yesterday I posted an Analyst Challenge based on a moment from game 3 of G2 Esports vs. Damwon Gaming in the World Championships quarterfinals.

Here’s the challenge tweet.


Continue reading Analyst Challenge – Risk Tolerance, October 30

Feet on the Mountain, Head in the Clouds: Comprehensive measurement of elemental drake value

Tim Sevenhuysen is the founder of and Head of Esports Data Science for Esports One. He led from 2017-19 and was Statistical Consultant for Fnatic in 2015.

I’ve investigated the relative value of different elemental drake types in the past, and the topic has continued to fascinate me as LoL has evolved over time, with both direct and indirect changes to the elemental drake buffs. With the development of new, more comprehensive LoL win probability models, which I’ve been building for Esports One, there’s a better toolset than ever for diving deeper into the elemental drake question.

Since Riot recently revealed that the dragon system is getting a big overhaul for 2020, there will never be a better time to share some findings about the current iteration of the system! In future, this will give us a comparison point, so we can conduct similar analysis on the new dragon system and see how much has changed.

The analysis below extends my previous work on the statistical value of elemental drakes. I’ve come away with the following main findings:

  • Mountain drakes are the only drake type to gain in value as more game time passes.
  • Infernal drakes have the most direct value at almost all stages of the game.
  • Cloud drakes start out as the most directly valuable type, but their value falls off more compared to infernals.
  • Ocean drakes have the least overall value, from the very start of the game onwards.

Details and discussion below!
Continue reading Feet on the Mountain, Head in the Clouds: Comprehensive measurement of elemental drake value

Plug’s Breakdowns: The Quarterfinals

This article has been prepared by John “TheEsportsPlug” George, an esports daily fantasy player, bettor, and former professional poker player.

With the group stages completed, it’s time for us to take a look at the Quarterfinal matchups! It played out in a wild fashion but ended up with the result I had locked in on Pick ‘Ems, and we’ve found ourselves with arguably 7 of the top 8 teams in the tournament all headed to the knockout stage.

There’s no doubt for me that this is the highest quality of competition we’ve ever had at the World Championships, and we will really get to see how the different styles and strategies play out against one another given these quarterfinal draws. Continue reading Plug’s Breakdowns: The Quarterfinals

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